Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence, a video game market research firm, projects Nintendo's Switch 2 to be the best-selling next-gen console. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million units by 2028. This makes Nintendo the projected "clear winner" and "console market leader," leaving Microsoft and Sony potentially lagging.
This forecast is based on the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release, giving it a significant head start over competitors. DFC Intelligence suggests that while Sony and Microsoft are developing handheld consoles, these are still in early stages, with potential releases around 2028. This three-year gap provides a substantial advantage to the Switch 2, potentially securing its dominance. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.
The Switch's enduring popularity is undeniable. Circana (formerly NPD) reported that the Switch has surpassed the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales, reaching the second highest all-time sales for a video game console in the US, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy, especially considering a reported 3% year-over-year sales decrease.
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry as a whole. After a two-year slump, the industry is projected to experience healthy growth through the end of the decade, with 2025 potentially being a record year. This growth is attributed to anticipated releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, which are expected to boost consumer spending. The global gaming audience is also projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027, fueled by the rising popularity of portable gaming and the growth of esports and gaming influencers. This increased accessibility and engagement is driving hardware sales across PC and consoles.
