It's been a tumultuous week for U.S. gamers, marked by a rollercoaster of announcements and reactions. The excitement over the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and games, was quickly overshadowed by dismay at its $450 price tag and the $80 cost for Mario Kart Tour. The news cycle took another turn when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to assess the impact of the sweeping tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on numerous countries.
We've previously discussed the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these new tariffs on the broader gaming industry. However, the burning question now is: what will Nintendo do? With pre-orders on hold, could the price of the Nintendo Switch 2 rise even further?
In my usual approach to such queries, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they often provide a consensus based on data and evidence. This week alone, I've already sought their insights twice. However, this time, for the first time since I began these discussions, every analyst I spoke with was effectively stumped. Some ventured guesses about Nintendo possibly raising or maintaining prices, but all emphasized the current chaotic and unprecedented nature of the situation, making any prediction highly uncertain.
Here’s a summary of what the analysts I spoke with had to say:
Sky-High Switch
Opinions were split among the analysts. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to adjust prices post-announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders has led him to believe that Nintendo might have no choice but to raise prices. He predicts potential price hikes not just for the console but also for games and accessories, suggesting that the base model could reach $500 due to the "sky-high tariffs." Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariff issues before setting prices.
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment of unpredictability but leaned towards an increase in game prices, including those from Nintendo. He noted that the tariffs were broader and more impactful than anticipated, forcing businesses to reevaluate their pricing strategies. Piscatella highlighted that the U.S. might join other regions in facing higher game prices due to these tariffs.
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, also anticipates an increase in hardware prices due to the tariffs. He believes that while physical game versions might be affected, the shift towards digital distribution might mitigate the impact on software prices. Rosier suggests that companies like Nintendo might pass the increased costs onto consumers rather than absorbing them.
Holding the Line
On the other side, Joost van Dreunen, an NYU Stern professor and author, believes that Nintendo will try hard to avoid raising the Switch 2's price. He argues that the $449.99 price point already accounts for potential tariff-related volatility, given Nintendo's restructuring of its supply chain to mitigate geopolitical risks. However, he acknowledges the significant uncertainty introduced by recent tariff decisions, particularly in Vietnam, which could force Nintendo to reconsider if the situation worsens.
Piers Harding-Rolls, a games researcher at Ampere Analysis, shares van Dreunen's view that Nintendo risks consumer backlash by increasing prices further. He suggests that Nintendo is in a difficult position after announcing the launch price and might delay any price adjustments until 2026 if the tariffs persist. Harding-Rolls believes that Nintendo hopes for a resolution in the coming weeks but acknowledges that all options are now on the table, which could affect the brand's perception and consumer behavior at launch.
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, a games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He recalls his earlier comments on Nintendo potentially offering cheaper digital editions of games in certain markets to encourage digital purchases. Elliott warns of broader negative impacts on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He criticizes the tariffs as detrimental to consumers and the economy, driven by what he calls "unhinged times."
Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery
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Elliott paints a grim picture of the gaming industry's future under these tariffs, suggesting that they will lead to a "weaker, poorer nation" with consumers bearing the brunt of the cost. He emphasizes the logistical challenges companies face in shifting supply chains and critiques the tariffs as part of a broader economic misstep, contradicting principles of international trade theory.
